Legislative Elections: an "Orbanized" or "Venezuelanized" France at the Heart of Europe

As far as the NFP is concerned, its economic program is extremely spendthrift (5 to 10% of GDP in additional public spending per year), potentially putting France in a new category for developed countries: that of developed economies with a heavy socialist, even communist, bent, insofar as this spending will essentially be financed by tax increases. The rest will be financed by a further explosion in deficits, at a time when France is being caught by Brussels for excessive deficits. All in all, this should cause interest rates on French debt to soar, forcing the ECB to intervene. In the long term, with the euro likely to depreciate against the dollar, countries with healthy public finances and export-oriented growth models could decide to leave the common currency. The emergence of a spendthrift Venezuela at the heart of Europe could therefore cause the Economic and Monetary Union to implode, and lead France down the path of fiscal dominance and inflation.

As for the RN, its program is less spendthrift (up to 3% of GDP in additional annual public spending) but, once well established in power, its economic policies could come into head-on confrontation with what Brussels is proposing, in terms of industrial, budgetary and other policies. Furthermore, the RN wishes to reduce its financial and strategic involvement in Europe. An as time goes by, the RN could abandon its electoral lies and return to its fundamentals: leaving the euro, or even the European Union - its 2017 program. This would be consistent with his nationalist vision and his historically pro-Russian or even pro-Chinese stance - like Orban. It would mark the end of the European project as we know it, and usher Europe into a period of instability, and maybe of fracturing.