Harris Versus Trump: US Presidential Election and its Implications for the European Union

"Whether it's the economy, the military or politics, under Trump, relations between the EU and the US are likely to become more tense again," fears cep economist Eleonora Poli in Rome, who analysed possible outcomes with cep economist Victor Warhem in Paris and cep board member Henning Vöpel in Berlin. As with the 2020 election, fear of a new Trump era is pushing European forces to act quickly and prepare for a new wave of US withdrawal from the EU. "This may explain the speed with which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has awarded top EU posts," emphasises Warhem.

Regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, Vöpel believes that the only strategy for Europe is to overcome its current weak position by gaining sovereignty. "This requires external alliances and cooperation as well as strengthening the single market. Europe can no longer rely on being protected. The future of Europe hangs in the balance," warns Vöpel.

Numerous interconnected geopolitical crises could trigger a domino effect at any time. "Europe is no longer at the centre of the US geostrategic map. Therefore, the EU must continue to build new strategic partnerships, diversify its trade relations and develop new long-term alliances, but it must also reorganise its cooperation with the US in terms of security and technological development," says Poli.