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The Shifting Sands of Europe: How Political Trends Might Reshape EU Unity Towards Ukraine

Dr. Eleonora Poli

While the war in Ukraine has significantly affected the EU economy, leading to a severe energy crisis and increased inflation, it has also resulted in a push towards greater strategic autonomy. Yet, as the EU continues its economic, military, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, such a support and the prospect of future enlargement for the country could be challenged by the rise of right-wing populist parties in the European Parliament, following the June 2024 elections. Chances that these parties will be able to form effective coalitions and change EU approach towards Ukraine are limited. Yet, current uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential elections as well as a general fatigue towards the Ukrainian issue should result in a close monitoring of the problem.

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To date, a majority of EU citizens support humanitarian aid towards Ukraine. Yet, consensus on military aid and Ukraine's accession to the EU is less overwhelming. Moreover, an average of 70% of EU citizens is not in favour of prioritising Ukraine over other issues.

Ukraine’s potential EU membership poses financial and political challenges, particularly concerning the EU budget, cohesion policy, and agricultural subsidies. At the same time, while EU membership is a merit-based process, the war will certainly undermine Ukraine's ability to meet the accession criteria and enforce the necessary institutional reforms.

Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. Presidential elections, the EU must act as a key global player and ensure that its commitments to enlargement, military, and economic support for Ukraine remain strategic priorities. This involves addressing public fatigue and managing internal political dynamics to build cohesion around this issue.

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The Shifting Sands of Europe: How Political Trends Might Reshape EU Unity Towards Ukraine (publ. 09.20.2024)	PDF	409 KB	Download