AI analysis of the German federal elections: The parties’ visions for the future lack ideas and solutions

By combining a large language model with a self-developed future typology, each paragraph of the manifestos was quantified with a future score and sorted into content categories. SPD, Greens, and FDP have slightly higher future scores than the CDU/CSU, while the AfD, BSW, and Die Linke have lower future scores. How high the proportion of future-oriented paragraphs should be depends on normative preferences. Therefore, a high number of future scenarios does not necessarily mean that a party presents a more realistic or convincing programme for the future. Our metric is intended to stimulate discussion about the role of future visions in election campaigns.

It is striking that the AfD and the BSW rely relatively often on external crisis descriptions, while the FDP, the Greens, and the SPD describe more scenarios that can be actively shaped. Nevertheless, the majority of future scenarios are abstract. Buzzwords such as “digitalisation” are often used without any elaboration on specific instruments. The AI-supported analysis of the German federal election manifestos shows a clear discrepancy between rhetorical claims of progress and a forward-looking orientation.

Long-term policy-making requires clear visions of the future and concrete measures – but many manifestos remain vague and offer little in the way of an informed debate on how to shape the future.